Highly anticipated IGCEP (Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan) report v2 came out, authored by the NTDC (National Transmission and Dispatch Company Pakistan), some salient points of the report are as follows:
1) This is a 28 year generation expansion plan from (2020-2047) done on PLEXOS simulation software with objective to increasing local indigenization & reducing cost. Will be annually updated.
2) The generation plan is based on load forecasts based on five different scenarios and includes twelve different sensitivity analysis.
3) By 2030 to meet a demand of 43,820 MW, a total of 76,391 MW of generation capacity will have to be added, out of which 10,327 MW of wind and 12,793 MW of solar. Increased share of Hydro and local coal is forecasted.
4) By 2047 to meet a demand of 103,065 MW, a total of 168,246 MW of generation capacity needs to be added. Out of which 26,921 MW of solar and 10,327 MW will be added. Major share though is of local coal and hydro.
5) By the end of 2047 VRE accounts for 15% of energy mix. 6) The share of wind and solar in the overall energy mix increases from about 3% in 2020 to 23% in 2030, however decreases beyond 2030 due to increase in local coal.