The energy sector in 2032: Between the being and the should be
Any prospective exercise has the risk of the future and more so when it comes to a sector in the process of transformation such as energy. We just have to look back and remember what the energy sector was like in 2012 and what we have today. We are seeing that a sector in which the phases used to last ten years are now accelerating due to technological advances and globalization.
We are in a decade of change.We wonder about the depth of these changes and their speed. Thinking about it, we are reminded of John Neville Keynes’s definition of positive and normative economics. Between what is and what should be.
If we start with a normative vision, that is, what the energy sector should look like in 2032, based on the technological opportunities and trends that we have today, we would find with a sector that has a great transformation.
The fight against the climatic emergency, supported by the degree of competitiveness of renewable energies and the national need to get rid of external dependencies, would have made us find ourselves with an electricity sector that, at least most of the time, is 100% renewable, with the leadership of photovoltaic energy.
The “empowerment” of the consumer should have become a reality thanks to the roofs of our houses with solar energy. Soon it will be as common as having a television at home.
The combination of these factors with the changes in the telecommunications and transport industry will allow us to finally have smart cities. The different storage solutions will have become as important a part of a solar plant as the panels, both on the ground and on the roof. Hydrogen will be replacing fossil resources.
The solar resource in Spain, due to the large number of hours that our country has compared to neighboring countries and the economies of scale that allow the greater availability of territory, will have allowed the attraction of industrial investment to our country.
Understanding globalization will make it possible to replace the strategic oil reserve with the strategic technological reserve. This will allow us to produce the entire solar value chain in Spain.
From the business point of view, we will find ourselves with a sector with a greater number of actors and in continuous competition, in which the energy communities play a relevant role.
This is the normative aspect of being able to be. The positive, how it will be, we will have to leave for another day.
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